The Mindset for Taking Calculated Risks

Most people who fail complain that they are victims of circumstances. Those who get on in this world are those who go out and look for the right circumstances. And if they can’t find them, they make them on their own.

​                                           George Bernard Shaw

You cannot be a victim of another, you can only be a victim of yourself.
James Bond Stockdale

Rational Emotive Behavior Therapy (REBT) is a liberating philosophy of life for helping people make changes and cope with severe adversity in their lives. As both the playwright George Bernard Shaw and prisoner of war survivor James Bond Stockdale point out in their quotes found above, we, in many ways, victimize and imprison ourselves and yet prefer to point to external circumstances and other people as the cause of our restraint. As the words of Shaw and Stockdale clearly show, they did not think in this self-defeating way. Ellis picked up where they left off and appreciated the power within. He argued that a fully functioning and self-actualizing human could take calculated risks. Unlike a foolhardy risk, a calculated risk has a probability of success that makes it worth considering in light of the potential benefits and potential losses. One might choose to take a calculated risk for multiple reasons, perhaps the best of which is in the service of maximizing pleasure or experiencing greater meaning in life. Consider this. You only have one life, and there is no telling how close to the end of your life you are. What do you plan to do with the time that remains?

REBT is a philosophy for minimizing emotional disturbance and maximizing pleasure and personal meaning. As an REBT psychologist and someone who has adopted REBT as a philosophy of life, I emphasize meaningful long-term pleasure-seeking rather than immediate gratifications, often short-lived. It is essential to have the capacity of delaying gratification and working towards long-lasting, longer-term, personally meaningful pleasure because some of the greatest joys in life will take a great deal of time, effort, and tolerance of discomfort and uncertainty to achieve.

Calculated risk-taking rests on the individual learning to exercise self-direction and take responsibility for the emotions he experiences as he acts on his self-direction. The individual reflects on what he wants to do with his life and chooses self-helping feelings of concern, which motivates him to do what he can to ensure a positive outcome when taking this calculated risk. The individual does not blame circumstances for his feelings and acknowledges personal responsibility for the healthy emotions he strives to experience before, during, and after taking the calculated risk.

It is also important to acknowledge that even the most carefully chosen calculated risks do not always work out in one’s favor. Disappointment can be the final result. Therefore, other REBT principles will be relevant and helpful when engaged in calculated risk-taking. Those concepts include uncertainty tolerance, unconditional self-acceptance, and unconditional life-acceptance.

Let us consider some of the REBT endorsed attitudes that enable people to take calculated risks. REBT theory suggests that these attitudes will characteristically be flexible and non-extreme. For example:

1. I wish I had a guarantee that the calculated risk I am about to take will pay off as I want it to, but unfortunately, I cannot have this, nor do I have to have a guarantee to proceed with this calculated risk. (This attitude produces the required tolerance of uncertainty to be capable of taking the calculated risk.)

2. If my calculated risk does not turn out as I planned, that would be very bad and disappointing, not awful. (This is a non-extreme attitude towards a failed calculated risk that allows the person to cope effectively with the disappointing outcome of his calculated risk.) I could transcend the result, learn from it, and carry on with my life.

3. The uncertainty involved in taking this calculated risk is uncomfortable but not unbearable. I can tolerate this uncertainty and the associated feelings of concern. These feelings are self-helping, and they are worth enduring because, on balance, it appears the risk is worth taking. These feelings of concern are also helpful because they motivate me to consider whether the risk is worth taking, and they also drive me to carefully plan the steps I will take to achieve my long-term goal. (This attitude enables the individual to tolerate the uncertainty before knowing the eventual outcome of the risk.)

4. If this calculated risk turns out poorly, that will be bad, but it will not make me lesser of a person. It will prove I am a fallible human who took a calculated risk that turned out poorly. I can accept myself with my successes and failures. (This non-extreme attitude will facilitate unconditional self-acceptance, which will protect the individual against ego anxiety that will keep him from being capable of taking the risk.)

5. I wish implementing this calculated risk would take less effort and risk, but it does not logically follow that it must not be easier to take. Often, gratifying things in life take a great deal of time, effort and involve significant risk. (This attitude will enable the individual to have sufficient discomfort tolerance to face the struggle that is the price of obtaining the long-term pleasure the risk might produce.)

6. If significant people in my life laugh at me, reject my values, or do not understand why I am taking this risk, this is not awful. Approval and respect from others are good to have but not absolute necessitates. I never need the support of others to direct my own life and accept myself unconditionally as a person.

7. If, in the end, I am disappointed with the return I derive from this risk, that is very unfortunate, but it is never the end of the world. I acknowledge I have no guarantee of success. With the proper attitude, I could transcend the failure and the disappointment. I want to think about my more significant regret, taking the risk and possibly experiencing failure, or never knowing if I could have achieved a more meaningful and satisfying life? Remember that life is an art, not a science. It is my masterpiece to paint.

8. If, after careful reflection, the tradeoffs are insufficient and I choose not to take the calculated risk, I never have to upset myself over this. I can unconditionally accept myself after deciding not to take this risk, and I can unconditionally accept life as it is until I can make it better. I can then consider other options and calculated risks free of emotional upset.

Note that REBT theory says that the healthy negative emotion that will precede calculated risk-taking is the emotion of concern. Concern leads to careful planning, poise, and proper execution of a plan when the time is best to act. This important emotion is different than anxiety. Anxiety leads to procrastination and avoidance and is therefore unhealthy and self-defeating. Due to the possibility of a negative outcome, our concern also enables us to assess whether or not the calculated risk is worth taking. This healthy negative feeling increases the probability of eventual success.

REBT liberates a person by enabling them to accept the outcome of their calculated risk when it goes poorly. A person never has to feel shameful when they fail to achieve a goal. REBT will allow the individual embarking on a calculated risk to have some degree of happiness despite the healthy negative feelings of disappointment and sorrow they will inevitably feel should their calculated risk not provide the desired outcome. This disappointment and sadness would result from acknowledging the failure of the calculated risk. However, the individual will not feel depression and shame because they both philosophically accept life with the failed risk and choose not to devalue themselves for having failed. The individual also will not feel anxious or panicked when they realize their calculated risk did not result in the desired outcome. They can choose to hold a flexible and non-extreme attitude towards any uncomfortable consequential circumstances that arise. The self-helping philosophy that applies to such cases would be, “It is bad that this calculated risk did not turn out as I hoped it would, but this is not awful. I can survive the outcome and the uncomfortable circumstance I now face, and I can learn from this experience and thereby transcend this negative outcome. Life could be far worse for me.”

Here is an example of REBT calculated risk-taking applied to someone choosing to leave their current career and start a business. John experiences a lack of fulfillment in his current occupation. He has always wanted to start his own business and manage himself. John spends a year or more planning the steps to start his own business. He does not resign from his present job until he has accumulated what he believes will be sufficient funds to enable him to seed his new business. John makes a conservative estimate of what is likely to be gained by embarking on this course of action. He consults well-informed others to help him prepare for his calculated risk and make him aware of any unforeseen challenges and obstacles he may not appreciate due to his enthusiasm to start his business. John acknowledges his current responsibilities and continues to meet them while simultaneously taking steps to start his business. He has awareness and concern he could fail and has considered an alternative course of action he could implement if he were to fail at this endeavor. John commits to act on a specific date and launches his business with hope and concern. He does not demand advanced knowledge to succeed and is aware of his healthy feelings of concern. Most importantly, he tolerates the discomfort of the hard work required to reach his goals and unconditionally accepts himself, not looking to others to approve of his decisions and actions.

Bottom line: You only have one life, and yours is nearing its end every day. What do you plan to do with the time that remains? Remember, it is unlikely you get a do-over life. Rational Emotive Behavior Therapy can help you have the emotional strength to take calculated risks and live a self-directed life.

Look, if you had one shot or one opportunity to seize everything you ever wanted in one moment. Would you capture it or just let it slip?

Windy Dryden, PhD

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