Calculated Risk-Taking – Walter J. Matweychuk, Ph.D.
Most people who fail complain that they are victims of circumstances. Those who get on in this world are those who go out and look for the right circumstances. And if they can’t find them, they make them on their own.
George Bernard Shaw
You cannot be a victim of another. You can only be a victim of yourself. It is all how you discipline your mind.
Epictetus
Rational Emotive Behavior Therapy (REBT) is a liberating philosophy of life and psychotherapy useful for helping people to make changes within themselves and in their lives. As both the playwright George Bernard Shaw and the Greco-Roman Stoic philosopher Epictetus point out in their quotes found above, we in many ways, victimize and imprison ourselves and yet prefer to point to external circumstances and other people as the cause of our restraint. As the words of Epictetus and Shaw clearly show, they did not think this way. Ellis, picked up where they left off and appreciated the power within. He argued that a fully functioning and self-actualizing human could take calculated risks. Unlike a foolhardy risk, a calculated risk has a probability of success that makes it worth considering in light of the potential benefits and potential losses. One might choose to take a calculated risk for multiple reasons, perhaps the best of which is in the service of maximizing pleasure or experiencing greater meaning in life. Consider this. You only have one life, and there is no telling how close to the end of your life you are. What do you plan to do with the time that remains?
REBT is a philosophy for minimizing emotional disturbance and maximizing pleasure and personal meaning. As an REBT philosopher and psychologist, I emphasize meaningful long-term pleasure-seeking rather than immediate gratifications that are often short-lived. It is essential to have the capacity of delaying gratification and working towards long-lasting, longer-term, personally meaningful pleasure because some of the greatest joys in life will take a great deal of time, effort, uncertainty and tolerance of discomfort to achieve.
Calculated risk-taking rests on the individual learning to exercise self-direction and to take responsibility for the emotions he experiences as he acts on his self-direction. The individual reflects on what he wants to do with his life and chooses self-helping feelings of concern, which motivates him to do what he can to ensure a positive outcome when taking this calculated risk. The individual does not blame circumstances for his feelings and acknowledges personal responsibility for the healthy emotions he strives to experience before, during, and after having taken the calculated risk.
It is also important to acknowledge that even the most carefully chosen calculated risks do not always work out in one’s favor. Disappointment can be the final result. Therefore, other REBT principles will be relevant and helpful when engaged in calculated risk-taking. Those concepts include uncertainty tolerance, unconditional self-acceptance, and unconditional life-acceptance.
Let us consider some of the REBT endorsed attitudes that enable people to take calculated risks. REBT theory suggests that these attitudes will characteristically be flexible and non-extreme. For example:
1. I wish I could have a guarantee that the calculated risk I am about to take will pay off as I want it to, but unfortunately, I cannot have a guarantee, nor do I have to have one to proceed with this calculated risk. (This attitude produces the required tolerance of uncertainty to be capable of taking the calculated risk.)
2. If my calculated risk does not turn out as I planned, that would be very bad and disappointing, not awful. I could transcend the outcome, learn from it, and carry on with my life. (This is a non-extreme attitude towards a failed calculated risk that allows the person to cope effectively with the disappointing outcome of his failed calculated risk.)
3. The uncertainty involved in taking this calculated risk is uncomfortable, but not unbearable. I can tolerate this uncertainty and the associated feelings of concern. These feelings are self-helping, and they are worth enduring because, on balance, it appears the risk is worth taking. These feelings of concern are also useful because they motivate me to consider whether the risk is worth taking, and they also drive me to carefully plan the steps I will take to achieve my long-term goal. (This attitude enables the individual to tolerate the uncertainty before and during the process of acting on the risk while not knowing the eventual outcome.)
4. If this calculated risk turns out poorly, that will be bad, but it will not make me lesser of a person. It will prove I am a fallible human who took a calculated risk that turned out poorly. I can accept myself with my successes and failures. (This non-extreme attitude will facilitate unconditional self-acceptance which will protect the individual against ego anxiety that will keep him from being capable of taking the risk.)
5. I wish implementing this calculated risk would take less effort, but it does not logically follow taking the risk has to involve less effort. Often it is the case that highly rewarding things in life take a great deal of time and effort. (This attitude will enable one to have sufficient discomfort tolerance not to avoid the uncomfortable struggle that which is the price of pursuing this opportunity.)
6. If significant people in my life laugh at me, reject my values, or do not understand why I am taking this risk that is undesirable, not awful. Approval and respect from others are lovely to have but not absolute necessitates. I never need the support of others to direct my own life and to accept myself unconditionally as a person.
7. If, in the end, I am disappointed with the return I derive from this risk and the effort it requires, that is very unfortunate, but it is never the end of the world. I acknowledge I have no guarantee of success. With the proper attitude I could transcend the failure and the disappointment. The question I want to consider carefully is what will be my more significant regret, taking the risk and possibly experiencing disappointment, or never knowing if I could have achieved a more meaningful and satisfying life? Remember that life is an art, not a science. It is my masterpiece to paint.
8. If, after careful reflection, the tradeoffs are insufficient and I choose not to take the calculated risk I never have to upset myself over this. I can unconditionally accept myself after deciding not to take this risk, and I can unconditionally accept life as it is until I can make it better. I can then consider other options and calculated risks free of emotional upset.
Note that REBT theory says that the healthy negative emotion that will precede calculated risk-taking is the emotion of concern. This important emotion is different than anxiety. Anxiety leads to procrastination and avoidance and is therefore unhealthy and self-defeating. Concern leads to careful planning, poise, and proper execution of a plan when the time is best to act. Due to the possibility of a negative outcome, our concern also enables us to assess whether or not the calculated risk is worth taking. This healthy negative feeling increases the probability of eventual success.
REBT liberates a person by enabling them to accept the outcome of their calculated risk when it goes poorly. One never has to feel shameful when they fail to achieve a goal. REBT will allow the individual embarking on a calculated risk to have some degree of happiness despite the healthy negative feelings of disappointment and sorrow they will inevitably feel should their calculated risk not provide the desired outcome. This disappointment and sadness would result from acknowledging the failure of the calculated risk. However, the individual, once having taken this calculated risk and not achieving the desired outcome, will not feel depression and shame because they both philosophically accept life as it now is and chooses not to depreciate themselves as a person for having taken the calculated risk and having not achieved their desired outcome. The individual also will not feel anxious or panicked when they realize their calculated risk did not result in the desired outcome because they can choose to hold a flexible and non-extreme attitude towards any uncomfortable consequential circumstances that arise. The self-helping attitude that applies to such cases would be, “It is bad that this calculated risk did not turn out as I hoped it would, but this is not awful. I can survive the outcome and the uncomfortable circumstance I now face, and I can learn from this experience and thereby transcend this negative outcome. Life could be far worse for me.”
Here is an example of REBT calculated risk-taking in action as applied to someone choosing to leave their present career and start a business. John experiences a lack of fulfillment in his current occupation. He has always wanted to start his own business and manage himself. John spends a year or more planning the steps to take to start his own business. He does not resign from his present job until he has accumulated what he believes will be sufficient funds to enable him to seed his new business. John makes a conservative estimate of what is likely to be gained by embarking on this course of action. He consults well-informed others to help him prepare for his calculated risk and to make him aware of any unforeseen challenges and obstacles he may not appreciate due to his enthusiasm to start his business. John acknowledges his current responsibilities and continues to meet them while simultaneously taking steps to start his business. He has awareness and concern he could fail and has considered an alternative course of action he could implement if he were to fail at this endeavor. John commits to act on a specific date and launches his business with hope and concern. He does not demand advance knowledge that he will succeed and is aware of his healthy feelings of concern. Most importantly he tolerates the discomfort of the hard work required to reach his goals and unconditionally accepts himself not looking to others to approve of his decisions and actions.
Bottom line: You only have one life, and yours is nearing its end every day. What do you plan to do with the time that remains? Rational Emotive Behavior Therapy can help you have the emotional strength to take calculated risks and live a self-directed life. Remember, it is unlikely you get a do-over life.
Look, if you had one shot or one opportunity to seize everything you ever wanted in one moment. Would you capture it or just let it slip?
Windy Dryden, Ph.D.